#USDJPY Approaching Former Swing Lows That May Reach As A Resistance

USDJPY Approaching Former Swing Lows That May Reach As A Resistance

USDJPY gapped higher on Sunday and then reversed sharply lower on Monday during the US hours when stock market fell. As such, wave (v) was a little short but still valid because pair reached new high at 94.53 and completed black wave 3. As such, we suspect that pair is now in a three wave retracement lower in wave 4 that may reach 90.00 level. One possibility is also a flat in wave four if rally from 90.92 will be in five waves.

If wave count below is correct, then pair should reverse lower 92.80-93.20 resistance; former swing lows. 

#AUDUSD Corrective Reversal Could Reach 1.0360/80 Swing

AUDUSD hit new low few sessions back and reversed quite impulsively from 1.0181 low which suggests that pair has reached a temporary low. In fact, recent price action in 1.0220-1.0370 range could be labeled as a triangle in fourth wave so reversal that we are seeing is actually not a surprise because we know that move after the triangle was a final leg of a larger trend. In our case that was wave 5 that completed a five wave decline in wave 1). With that said, current rally is probably part of incomplete minimum three-wave rally that could reach 1.0360/80 swing zone in the next 2-4 trading days.

On a daily chart we can also see a morning star formation in progress that also supports the idea for near-term bullish waves, but need to see today’s close around current levels or higher.


Morning star in progress?

#GBPUSD: Pull-back Could Be Seen Towards 1.5318 Before New Sell-off

Cable fell into a new low as expected after a black wave 4 pull-back to 1.5318. Well, the latest low is now fifth wave in wave 3) which means that market may have bottomed for the near-term as coming pull-back will be another wave 4) but of one larger degree. Resistance for this wave 4) will come in around 1.5318. Bullish divergence on the RSI compared to wave 3 and wave 5 swings also suggest that pull-back is due. 

#USDCAD Could Make A Pull-back from 1.0280/1.0310 Within Extended Uptrend

USDCAD is higher, but pair could be in final stages of an uptrend in wave (iii) as we can count five waves up from 1.0000 with current fifth wave approaching to some key Fibonacci resistance levels around 1.0290. We know that after every five waves correction follows so reversal from here would not be a surprise but pull-back will be temporary blue wave (iv) that may retrace back to 1.0150-1.0200; wave four zone of one lesser degree. Keep in mind that larger trend for USDCAD is up, so we will continue to look higher after a pull-back while 1.0087 invalidation level is not breached.

Sentiment table

Current Trend/Sentiment	Directional Bias	Strategy
Up		Stay aside; waiting on fourth wave

Elliott Wave #GOLD: Weakness Could Extend To 1530

GOLD moved lower as expected, but because of a very sharp and aggressive sell-off we reworked the wave count. We are now tracking a three wave A)-B)-C) Elliott wave pattern from 1795 swing with wave C) underway, which appears incomplete as we need five waves down from 1696. As such, Elliott traders must be aware of more weakness in this week as current recovery could be a black wave 4 that will look for a tip around 1595-1605. Market remains in bearish mode as long as 1651 resistance is not breached. Under this bearish scenario prices could hit 1525/30 level where red wave C) equals to wave A) measured from wave B) high.
Gold Chart - Elliott Wave Analysis http://bit.ly/YtsGAR

#AUDUSD: Larger Trend Remains Bearish After Stevens Speech

AUDUSD: Larger Trend Remains Bearish After Stevens Speech

It seems that markets are recovering slightly after strong push lower on stocks and commodities in this week.  The only question when again risk-off trade will resume. The fact is that recent gains on AUD and now also EUR (German IFO index) are driven by news. AUDUSD found the support after RBA Governor Stevens mentioned that China’s growth slowdown has ended. Pair found the support for 80 pips, which could be erased soon if we consider that he is not satisfied with current »strong« AUD value.
With that said we are tracking two slightly different counts for AUDUSD, but both are bearish Elliott wave patterns. The first price action is showing five wave fall from 1.0366 followed by a three wave rally in wave ii) which could be counted as an expanded flat. We like this count but need to see impulsive decline from current 61.8% retracement, while 1.0366 is in place.

Well, if today market will remain strong and closed somewhere around or above 1.0330 level then we will be focused on the second wave count. This one suggests that market could rally in five waves from 1.0220 and towards 1.0400 before larger downtrend resumes.
 
So both counts are pointing for weaker AUD in the mid-term, and if you would like to short it don’t give up if pair will extend higher in the next 24-48 trading hours, through 1.0366.  We somehow like the second wave count.
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#GBPUSD : Strong Weakness Could Accelerate After 1.5267 Break

Cable extended even lower yesterday with very sharp decline during the US trading hours. We know that sharp and big moves usually represent wave three that is part of an impulsive, five wave cycle. As such, we updated the count that is pointing for more GBP weakness in days ahead. We are tracking wave three of three now that may reach 1.5000 level in the very near-term. Meanwhile any pull-backs should prove corrective while price is trading below 1.5440.
4 Hour Chart - Elliott Wave Analysis http://bit.ly/15xeMB1

On the weekly chart we can see that price is well below 2009 support line and now also took out the swing low from January 2012, which could be very ugly for GBP. Larger count suggests that pair is at the start of big wave (C ) down.
Weekly Chart - Elliott Wave Analysis http://bit.ly/15xeMB1

#OIL Is Forming Continuation Pattern Within Larger Trend (Elliott Wave Analysis)

Oil firstly extended lower at the end of the past week in wave C as highlighted in our past updates. Well, we anticipated a five wave decline from 98.00 but because of an overlap with 96.57 market actually completed a three waves (a)-(b)-(c) down to 95.11. This is a structure of a corrective movement so we think that whole price action from Jan 30 is actually an incomplete triangle in wave 4), especially if we consider that market did not move through previous wave A swing level. If we are correct, then market will stay sideways for the next 24-48 hours before price breaks higher, through 98 mark that will open door for $100, psychological level.

What is a triangle?

A Triangle is a common 5 wave pattern labeled A-B-C-D-E that moves counter-trend and is corrective in nature. Triangles move within two channel lines drawn from waves A to C, and from waves B to D. A Triangle is either contracting or expanding depending on whether the channel lines are converging or expanding. Triangles are overlapping five wave affairs that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3.

EURUSD: Pull-back Within Corrective Decline

EURUSD is in recovery mode after a sharp fall down to 1.3300 last week. For now, rally from the lows cannot be counted in five waves and pair is also still trading well below 1.3518 invalidation level. Therefore, we think that complex corrective decline from 1.3710 is incomplete and that market will make one more push down, towards 1.3250 in this week to complete wave C of a second zig-zag that we are tracking. Pair is now testing a very important level around 1.3430/60 which appears to be ideal resistance zone for wave B; 61.8% retracement and also wave B equality from a second zig-zag. An overlap with 1.3370 would confirm the bearish view. Any new, aggressive shorts should have stops above 1.3518.
More Details with Chart (Elliott Wave Analysis) | http://bit.ly/154yPWe

#Gold (XAUUSD) New Leg Down toward 1560 – #Elliott #Wave #Analysis

On gold we are tracking an impulsive but still incomplete weakness from 1685. We think that prices are headed below 1625 January low but before that market could find a temporary low and retrace back to 1650 in wave iv) before downtrend resumes. Invalidation level remains at 1666.

#GBPUSD Now Below 2009 Trend-line; Sharp Fall To Come?

A decline from 2008 peak to 2009, 1.3500 low was in five waves, which in Elliott Wave theory indicates a direction of a larger trend. This is called an impulse wave, and once this leg is complete you will see a reversal in price, against the trend, normally into a slow, choppy and overlapping price action which is personality of a correction. Well, this is exactly what has market experienced since 2009 lows. As such, we are very confident that pair made a corrective pattern in wave (B) position called a triangle. In fact, this triangle could already be in place as current price closed below rising trend-line connected from 2009 low.

We however still want to see a break of wave D) 1.5267 low that will confirm the bearish view for wave (C) fall towards 1.3000.
 GBPUSD Weekly Chart - Elliott Wave Analysis  http://bit.ly/XW3AKM

German DAX Suggests More EURUSD Weakness After The Pull-back

German DAX is in down-trend in this week same as EURUSD from Feb 13 high. Also, both markets reached new lows this morning at the same time, so we can say that correlation between these two is very tight. This tells me that for near-term predictions on EURUSD we should focus on DAX more often and not so much on US stock market which is still in uptrend. OK, now let’s go to see DAX intraday structure. I can count five waves down from 7734, with a triangle in wave iv). That’s very important. Why? Because triangles occur prior to the final move of the larger pattern, so our wave v) should then be last leg in wave (i). The interesting part is that we know that after every five waves correction follows, and this is what we expect on DAX; 3-wave retracement in wave (ii) ideally back to 7650/70.

DAX 30min Chart - Elliott Wave Forecast http://bit.ly/XIEuPw

So, if correlation between DAX and EURUSD will remain tight then bounce on EURUSD would also not be a surprise. Three wave retracement in wave B back to 1.3400 should be interesting for short position…if we get a pull-back.

EURUSD 1h Chart - Elliott Wave Forecast http://bit.ly/XIEuPw

#EURUSD: Corrective Pull-back Could Now Extend To 1.3250 or even 1.3180

EURUSD extended its losses today after worse than expected GDP figures from Germany (-0.6%), Italy (-0.9%), France (-0.3%) and also after poor EUR-Flash GDP as well (-0.6%). Pair fell through 1.3350 support which means that corrective decline from 1.3710 will extend even deeper. We are observing a complex structure called a double zig-zag. If we are on the right track with the count then current leg down from 1.3518 is wave A, first wave of another zig-zag headed to 1.3250, which comes in around 1.61.8% extension level of wave X).

Always when market is in a pull-back mode we need to look on larger time frames and focus on primary trend. On a daily chart below we can see that larger trend is still in bullish mode because pair is trading above two important trend-lines connected from November 2012 lows. With current bearish sentiment on the EURUSD we think that blue support line could be the next target that comes around 1.3250, same level as mentioned above. With that said; pair is headed lower for now, but be aware of a larger trend which could resume once support lines are tested; 1.3250 and 1.3180. 

More Details with Chart - Elliott Wave Analysis | http://bit.ly/X7j7Hv

#Oil Corrective Wave IV (Elliott Wave)

Oil reversed sharply higher in this week but we think that rally up to 98 is only wave B, part of an incomplete corrective decline in wave 4) from Jan 30. If our interpretation is correct, then price will accelerate lower in impulsive manner back to 94.90.

Correction on #AUDUSD Could Lift Pair To 1.0450 (#ElliottWave)

Sharp, impulsive rally through the upper side of a recent downward channel suggests that AUDUSD reached a temporary low. Wave count below is showing us end of a five wave fall in wave 1) followed by a corrective wave 2) now in progress that may reach levels around 1.0400-1.0450 in this week. Elliott wave traders will know that current bounce should be in three waves, so more upside or sideways action to come while 1.0226 low holds.

On 1h chart we can see that AUDUSD made five waves up which confirms a temporary bullish run. In fact, price action in current 1.0300-1.0360 range is looking corrective, so we believe its wave B, part of an A-B-C recovery as mentioned above. If pull-back lower will occur in the next few hours then keep an eye on 1.0280 level from where price could turn bullish for C leg.

#EURUSD: Patiently Waiting For a Bullish Reversal

EURUSD found some support yesterday and is now testing the upper side of a corrective channel. As such, we need to be aware of an uptrend continuation as A-B-C corrective decline from 1.3710 may have already finished. However, recovery from latest swing low is still not in five waves, therefore we need to wait on more price data and time before bullish run for the EURUSD can be confirmed. Ideally, current recovery from 1.3350 will extend in five waves towards 1.3550 with a daily close above the trend-line that would confirm the bullish reversal we are waiting for.
More details with Chart (Elliott Wave Analysis & Count) http://bit.ly/WIdtMr

#USDJPY Breaks Higher Again; 95.00 Now In View

JPY was pushed lower again while Japanese shares soared after a Bank of Japan member said that more monetary easing could be justified later this year. USDJPY reached levels around 94.40 but we see an incomplete impulse from 92.15 swing low which means that pair should continue higher. We expect at least one more push up as current pull-back appears to be corrective black wave iv. Support for the pair comes in at 93.60/70.

S&P Futures are in a pull-back mode after five wave rally from 1494. So far decline looks corrective so we like the idea of incomplete uptrend. Support comes in around 1505. This count is also bearish for JPY, which means higher USDJPY.

Details with Wave Analysis Chart http://bit.ly/XyejXN

Larger Trend For The EURUSD Could Resume In This Week; “Be Prepared”

EURUSD reversed sharply lower last week after the ECB press conference. But despite recent pull-back, larger trend for the EURUSD remains bullish. The reasons is on a weekly chart where we can see that pair is still above two very important trend-lines connected from 1.0240 and 1.2660. Therefore, we think that bears are only temporary.
 
On the 4h chart below we can see that decline in C from 1.3596 can be counted in five waves, which means that whole three wave A-B-C decline from 1.3710 high could be near completion. Keep in mind that three wave movement is corrective structure so larger uptrend could resume, but we need some evidences from the market before bullish case can be confirmed. With that said, we need an impulsive rally back towards 1.3500; only then we will focus on new leg higher, back above 1.3700.

Fore More Details: http://bit.ly/VajEru

#S&P500: Daily Close Above 1515 Puts 1528-1535 Target In Play

US stocks opened higher after a rally on S&P Futures that was supported by a better than expected trade balance figures from the US (-38.5B vs. -45.7Bexp). S&P500 is at the highs and we need to respect the current price action, so we think that complex wave four which was unfolding for the past few days is complete. We however still want to see daily close price above 1515 today, but our focus however, will be a five wave rally towards 1528-1535 region next week. Any short-term retracement could look for the support at 1508. We are looking higher as long as short-term invalidation level remains in place at 1498!

#Oil: Buyers Could Wait On Deeper and Better Levels Within Bearish Correction

Oil fell down to $95 this weeky before turned bullish again. However, we think that latest  bullish rversal is only temporary, as we are tracking an incomplete corrective decline in wave 4) that should be structured by three legs. We labeled a leading diagonal in wave A followed by a current wave B bounce towards 97.30/50 from where price could turn bearish for wave C.
 

If you are familiar with the Elliott Wave Theory then you will know that fourth waves can be very tricky, because there are many different patterns available, like flat, triangle, zig-zag, or maybe even combination between them. However, the most common structure on the markets is a zig-zag. A zig-zag is a three wave pattern, labeled as A-B-C that occurs against the primary trend.  As such, we will focus on this structure for now, which means more downside could be seen in the next couple of days, possibly even back to $93-$94 zone; 38.2% retracement and base channel supports as shown on a daily chart below.

Intra-day Review For #USDCHF and #EURUSD (#Elliott Wave)

Markets did not move much during the Asian trading hours, despite lower stock prices that followed bearish price action seen yesterday on European and US shares.

The EURUSD was mostly flat around 1.3500 level but pair has now turned bullish ahead of the ECB. Looks like the reaction is technically based that came in from weaker USDCHF.

Notice that USDCHF made three waves up to 0.9148 but we still need to see break of a corrective channel support line and 0.9055 as well to confirm weakness towards 0.9000. Anyhow sooner or later pair will test this psychological level.

USDCHF 1h

At the same time we are tracking bullish intra-day pattern on EURUSD, where we could see test of 1.3600 resistance in incomplete wave B, before pair turns bearish for wave C.

EURUSD 1h

#USDJPY: Extended Bulls Could Stop At 94.50

USDJPY extended higher in the last 24 hours after recent pull-back to 92.00 which was wave iv) of a five wave rally in larger degree of a blue wave (v). Now we can count five waves up, so we need to be ready for possible bearish reversal, as we know that after every five waves correction follows. Current wave v) is already testing upper side of an impulse channel, so top could be near. But on the other-hand if we respect the trend, then extensions in fifth wave up to 94.50 (2.00 x wave iv)) would also not be a surprise. Divergence on the RSI is also early evidence of a coming top formation.

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USD Index Is Bullish For the Near-term Which Will Keep the #EURUSD Bellow 1.3710

USD Index has recovered very sharply from below 79.00 level. Recovery was impulsive so we need to respect this type of a price action, that’s why we turned bullish on the USD for a few days. Always when market will make just a corrective pull-back you need to remember that structure still needs to be made in three waves. If we look on our chart then we can clearly see that rise from the low is actually only in one completed leg; that’s wave (a), so be aware of more upside in this week. Ideally market is forming an (a)-(b)-(c) retracement, called a zig-zag towards 80.15-80.50 region. At that zone you will also notice a trend-line connected from November 16 which could react as a resistance if tested of-course.

For the very near-term we could see deeper levels in wave (b) with possible test of 79.40 region before wave (c) breaks higher.  With higher near-term prediction for the USD be aware of more weakness on EURUSD.

#AUDUSD Could Extend Deeper Based On Technical and Fundamental Outlook

AUD is weak today after unchanged rates decisions from the RBA members; 3.00%. However, there are speculations for further easing and possible cut on the next meeting because of inflation outlook and higher unemployment. This is the reason for weakness on AUDUSD which could extend much lower in this week. Technical outlook for the pair is also bearish after recent slow and overlapping structure in 1.0360-1.0475 range, which could be a triangle in fourth wave. Triangle is a five wave pattern that typical occurs in the middle of a larger trend, so it’s basically a continuation pattern. With that said be aware of fall through 1.0360 after completed wave (e) which is now underway up to 1.0410-1.0440 resistance.

On a daily chart we can also see a corrective advance from 1.0145 followed by a recently broken support channel line around 1.0415 (circled) which confirms the idea of a bearish trend for AUDUSD. So looking for lower levels on this pair makes sense.

EURUSD Update II: Bearish Reversal- Respect the Price Action (Elliott Wave)

24 hours back we were still observing bullish counts on EURUSD, but sharp fall invalidate it, which means that something is changing. Notice that pair reversed from its highs clearly in impulsive fashion through the channel support line of the latest bullish run, connected from 1.3262. Pair closed well bellow that trend-line which is important evidence for a temporary change in trend. As such, we need to respect this price action and immediately re-adjust the wave counts. Current structure suggests that EURUSD will make a minimum three wave decline from 1.3710, because this is the minimum structure of a corrective price action. Ideally we will see a simple zig-zag, labeled as an A-B-C move. Currently, price is still falling within wave A so we will see more sideways and bearish price action beneath 1.3400 and possibly to 1.3315 triangle pivot level after a wave B pull-back which will probably unfold ahead of the ECB rates decision on Thursday. 

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#USDCAD #Elliottwave Intraday Outlook

If USD is ready to erase some of the recent losses against its rivals, then USDCAD pair will be on our radar screen. Notice that pull-back from 1.0100 can be easily counted as a double zig-zag complex corrective pattern. However, only impulses can confirm the bullish trend. As such, we should patiently wait on rise (if any) back towards 1.0035 before we can call end of a correction and look higher, back above 1.0100. This confirmation might save you some pips, in case that pair won't turn bullish.

EURUSD Gains Slowed Down At 1.3700, But Only Temporary

EURUSD has extended its gains on Friday but then stopped at 138.2% Fibonacci extension level of wave i) measured from wave ii) low. In fact, pair found resistance after five waves up from 1.3414 so actually corrective retracement should not be a surprise as we expect a pull-back of a red wave iv). With that said, keep in mind that pull-back will be only temporary at may find a base around 1.3550/80 zone.
Only a break beneath 1.3480 would invalidate the wave count and suggests that EURUSD is ready for a sizeable decline.

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Gold elliott wave count is pointing lower.

Gold spiked higher after the NFP but despite this bullish run, our wave count is pointing lower. The reason is structure from 1652 which cannot be counted impulsively, therefore we think its a complex corrective move with another possible test of 1683 before larger downtrend resumes.

EURUSD: New Pull-back Could Be A New Long Opportunity

EURUSD is trading nicely higher since we called end of a wave ii) pull-back at 1.3413. Notice that market moved higher in five waves from that swing low, which represents impulsive wave iii) of a larger five wave rally. As such, we favour more upside on EURUSD, even towards 1.3700 but before that be aware of a corrective wave iv) retracement back to 1.3550. Larger trend however remains up as long as 1.3480 is not breached, therefore trader should stick with longs.

If you are wondering why 1.3480 level is important; its because wave four must not make an overlap with wave one, otherwise Elliott Wave rule of impulse would be violated and new, different wave count should then be considered.

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