USD Index Is Bullish For the Near-term Which Will Keep the #EURUSD Bellow 1.3710

USD Index has recovered very sharply from below 79.00 level. Recovery was impulsive so we need to respect this type of a price action, that’s why we turned bullish on the USD for a few days. Always when market will make just a corrective pull-back you need to remember that structure still needs to be made in three waves. If we look on our chart then we can clearly see that rise from the low is actually only in one completed leg; that’s wave (a), so be aware of more upside in this week. Ideally market is forming an (a)-(b)-(c) retracement, called a zig-zag towards 80.15-80.50 region. At that zone you will also notice a trend-line connected from November 16 which could react as a resistance if tested of-course.

For the very near-term we could see deeper levels in wave (b) with possible test of 79.40 region before wave (c) breaks higher.  With higher near-term prediction for the USD be aware of more weakness on EURUSD.

#AUDUSD Could Extend Deeper Based On Technical and Fundamental Outlook

AUD is weak today after unchanged rates decisions from the RBA members; 3.00%. However, there are speculations for further easing and possible cut on the next meeting because of inflation outlook and higher unemployment. This is the reason for weakness on AUDUSD which could extend much lower in this week. Technical outlook for the pair is also bearish after recent slow and overlapping structure in 1.0360-1.0475 range, which could be a triangle in fourth wave. Triangle is a five wave pattern that typical occurs in the middle of a larger trend, so it’s basically a continuation pattern. With that said be aware of fall through 1.0360 after completed wave (e) which is now underway up to 1.0410-1.0440 resistance.

On a daily chart we can also see a corrective advance from 1.0145 followed by a recently broken support channel line around 1.0415 (circled) which confirms the idea of a bearish trend for AUDUSD. So looking for lower levels on this pair makes sense.

EURUSD Update II: Bearish Reversal- Respect the Price Action (Elliott Wave)

24 hours back we were still observing bullish counts on EURUSD, but sharp fall invalidate it, which means that something is changing. Notice that pair reversed from its highs clearly in impulsive fashion through the channel support line of the latest bullish run, connected from 1.3262. Pair closed well bellow that trend-line which is important evidence for a temporary change in trend. As such, we need to respect this price action and immediately re-adjust the wave counts. Current structure suggests that EURUSD will make a minimum three wave decline from 1.3710, because this is the minimum structure of a corrective price action. Ideally we will see a simple zig-zag, labeled as an A-B-C move. Currently, price is still falling within wave A so we will see more sideways and bearish price action beneath 1.3400 and possibly to 1.3315 triangle pivot level after a wave B pull-back which will probably unfold ahead of the ECB rates decision on Thursday. 

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#USDCAD #Elliottwave Intraday Outlook

If USD is ready to erase some of the recent losses against its rivals, then USDCAD pair will be on our radar screen. Notice that pull-back from 1.0100 can be easily counted as a double zig-zag complex corrective pattern. However, only impulses can confirm the bullish trend. As such, we should patiently wait on rise (if any) back towards 1.0035 before we can call end of a correction and look higher, back above 1.0100. This confirmation might save you some pips, in case that pair won't turn bullish.

EURUSD Gains Slowed Down At 1.3700, But Only Temporary

EURUSD has extended its gains on Friday but then stopped at 138.2% Fibonacci extension level of wave i) measured from wave ii) low. In fact, pair found resistance after five waves up from 1.3414 so actually corrective retracement should not be a surprise as we expect a pull-back of a red wave iv). With that said, keep in mind that pull-back will be only temporary at may find a base around 1.3550/80 zone.
Only a break beneath 1.3480 would invalidate the wave count and suggests that EURUSD is ready for a sizeable decline.

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Gold elliott wave count is pointing lower.

Gold spiked higher after the NFP but despite this bullish run, our wave count is pointing lower. The reason is structure from 1652 which cannot be counted impulsively, therefore we think its a complex corrective move with another possible test of 1683 before larger downtrend resumes.

EURUSD: New Pull-back Could Be A New Long Opportunity

EURUSD is trading nicely higher since we called end of a wave ii) pull-back at 1.3413. Notice that market moved higher in five waves from that swing low, which represents impulsive wave iii) of a larger five wave rally. As such, we favour more upside on EURUSD, even towards 1.3700 but before that be aware of a corrective wave iv) retracement back to 1.3550. Larger trend however remains up as long as 1.3480 is not breached, therefore trader should stick with longs.

If you are wondering why 1.3480 level is important; its because wave four must not make an overlap with wave one, otherwise Elliott Wave rule of impulse would be violated and new, different wave count should then be considered.

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