Gold Intraday! Forecast

Jan 29, 2013. Gold is in correction form toward 1670 area.
Buy Gold at/above 1655. Stop Loss at 1652 Target: 1670
Sell Gold at/below 1650. Stop Loss 1655 Target: 1635

GBPUSD: Price Could Retrace To 1.5800-1.5900 Within Larger Downtrend

Pound is falling sharply for the past two weeks from 1.6180 Jan 11 swing high. Notice that decline from that high can be easily counted in five waves. That’s called an impulsive structure which represents huge red wave 3) which is part of much bigger five wave decline started back on Jan 2nd. Therefore we expect much deeper levels on cable, but not just yet. In fact, we think that before market breaks lower again we will see a corrective bounce in wave 4), ideally back to 1.5800-1.5900 range before new sell-off begins. Pair is also approaching some strong Fibo support for current third wave; its 1.618 x wave 1) measured from wave 2) high which very often reacts as a turning point at the end of a third wave. In our case that’s comes in at 1.5650. Bottom line: watch for a corrective bounce in 100-200 pips before new leg lower.

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Euro-Crosses should Extend Even Higher In Risk-On Environment-Elliott Wave

USD has been trading higher against its rivals during the Asian trading hours.  AUD, GBP and CAD are still one of the weakest while JPY is trying to find some support for the near-term. Larger picture of the markets remains unchanged but still very messy.

Below we have an overlay chart between some major FX currencies compared to S&P Futures and Crude Oil. We can see a strong negative correlation between FX pairs where only the EUR is moving higher in-line with risk-on assets, such oil and S&P.  Honestly, we do not like divergences too much, especially not between aussie and S&P which in fact could be signaling for a coming pull-back on stocks.

Overlay-Daily

Anyhow, traders need to trade what they see and not what they think, so at the moment looking for longs on EUR-crosses should be the best choice.
Below we are looking at EURCAD which is trading higher in wave (iii) that may slow down around 1.3630. Ideally we will see a fourth wave pull-back from there and back to 1.3500 which could be a long opportunity for short-term traders to catch wave (v) rally.

EURCAD 1h

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Elliott Wave Outlook For EURUSD and GBPUSD

Elliott Wave Outlook For EURUSD and GBPUSD

EURUSD

EURUSD finally broke to the upside which was expected after few days of a sideways price action in a shape of a triangle pattern. Pair already passed 1.3400 resistance level which now opens the door for 1.3500 or even 1.3550 level for the next few days. Trend is bullish as long as market trades above 1.3260. Meanwhile any pull-back to 1.3350 should prove corrective.

GBPUSD

Pound fell to a new low against the USD and slowed down just 5 pips from 1.5750 projected level, highlighted yesterday.  Notice that pair now has five waves down from 1.6180 which is the first evidence of a coming bounce, especially if we respect the bullish divergence on the RSI. Larger pull-back however could prove corrective and may stop at 1.5900 swing level that will may react as a resistance.

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Silver: Corrective Pull-back Within Uptrend

Silver has been in the uptrend-mode since start of January and it seems that bullish momentum has started to weaken from 32.45 peak. This however is not a surprise as market completed a fifth wave of a five wave sequence. In Elliott Theory we know that after every five waves correction follows. The interesting thing is that corrections usually starts after a divergence between wave 3 and wave 5 highs like in our case as shown on the MACD. Elliott Wave technicians will also know that corrections are structured minimum by three waves, so traders should be aware of a larger and deeper A-B-C pull-back possibly even back to 31 figure, near 38.2% retracement and Jan 17 swing level. After a completed three wave fall traders should again be on the watch for a bullish turn.

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Crude Oil Intraday! Heading toward wave V

Oil prices spiked up yesterday, closed to $97 per barrel before price turned sharply lower during the US trading hours. Looks like prices are capped now below 96.85 and ready for a deeper pull-back. We see market in minor fourth wave now from where extensions could follow to 94.80 later today. Any fast intra-day shorts should have stops above 96.15 critical region. Why? Because we know that wave four must not trade in to a territory of a wave one.

EURUSD Remains Trapped In Range, But Triangle Is Pointing Higher

Canadian dollar was one of the weakest yesterday after BoC leaved rates unchanged at 1% due to weakness in the economy and lowered GDP expectations for 2013 from 2.3% to 2.0%. IMF also lowered global growth for 2013 but markets did not move much after the announcement. Most of the FX pairs and major commodity markets are trading sideways while stocks keep pushing higher. S&P500 slowed down yesterday 4 points ahead of 1500 psychological level.

EURUSD tested 1.3250/60 support few sessions back from where we could see push higher today after just released better than expected German PMI numbers 48.8 vs. 47.1 expectation, but still in a contraction zone.

From an Elliott Wave perspective EURUSD still could be forming a triangle in wave four, but it’s hard to call the end of it. We need some impulsive reactions out of the path before direction of the pair can be confirmed.

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