GBPUSD Could Recover Back Above 1.5000

GBP made new low yesterday around 1.4830 before prices reversed higher during the US session. Well, now we can count five waves down in wave 5) from 1.5190 which means that pair could make a corrective bounce, ideally a larger pull-back in wave (4) as we are tracking now a final stages in blue wave (3). Traders should keep an eye on a falling resistance line connected from 1.5850; if broken on a daily close basis then bullish reversal will likely be confirmed that could lift the pair back to 1.5080-1.5190 range. Bullish divergence on the RSI also suggests that pair could be bottoming.

Sentiment table

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#USDCHF Update II: Corrective Reversal Could Reach 0.9390

USDCHF broke higher in this week as expected into wave 5 of 3) that found resistance just beneath 0.9500 mark. A reversal from that high is quite strong so we think it's part of a deeper pull-back but still only a corrective retracement. We are talking about red wave 4) that could reach levels around 0.9390 before uptrend resumes. 0.9390 was also a swing low of wave four of one lesser degree, then we also see there a 38.2% retracement Fibo support and around these levels wave 4) distance would equal to wave 2). As such it's worth to keep an eye on 0.9390 level that could cause a bounce.

USDCHF Sentiment Table [click here]

USDCHF 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis [click here]

#AUDUSD: Reversal Pattern Is Pointing Towards 1.0375

Sharp impulsive reversal higher in this week suggests that AUDUSD found a temporary low and completed an ending diagonal in wave 5 with a throw-over formation. Throw-over occurs when volume is high in the fifth wave that approaches its lower trendline of the pattern, and extends slightly beneath it before reversal occurs. As such, the wave count is now pointing higher for a minimum three waves retracement back to former black wave four levels; 1.0375.

Pair also tested and reverse lower from blue wave (iv) resistance yesterday that caused a current a pull-back in wave B that will ideally look for a support around 1.0200 area. Expect a wave C rise from those levels, while pair trades above 1.0115 invalidation level.

AUDUSD Sentiment Table http://bit.ly/ZfBOtu


AUDUSD Elliott Wave Analysis & Forecast http://bit.ly/ZfBOtu

#S&P500: Completed H&S Pattern Projects 1565

S&P 500 made nice push higher yesterday and successfully moved above the neckline that caused a break of 1530 level. Well, current price action from 1484 has an impulsive personality so we should see even higher levels, possibly test of 1550 and 1565 (head and shoulders measurement) as we need five wave rally from wave C low. Critical level is now at 1525; market remains bullish above that zone.

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#USDCHF: Minor Pull-back Within Uptrend

USDCHF accelerated higher at the end of the last week slightly through the upper channel resistance line which is a bullish signal for the pair. As such, we are now observing a new wave count with possible impulsive rally underway to 0.9500 area while 0.9335 is not breached. Notice that current pull-back from the latest high is quite slow which is usually an important sign for a corrective price action. As such this pull-back could represent wave 4 in the middle of ongoing wave 3) that could reach 261.8% extension level of wave 2).
Sentiment Table:

USDCHF - Elliott Wave Analysis

#EURUSD Broke 2012 Support Line; Can This Be Start of a Major Sell-off?!

Recently we were tracking a possible corrective decline from 1.3700 on EURUSD because of the overlapping structure. However, sharp and extended fall through 2012 support line with a weekly and monthly close price beneath it forced us to rework the count. In fact, we decided to check the line chart, where fall is pretty clean and directional. Move can be counted impulsively which that’s s bearish sign for the pair, but we expect a three wave bounce back to 1.3300 in March, before downtrend extends.

EURUSD daily- line chart

EURUSDmonthly

The reason why we also turned bearish on EURUSD is the overlay chart below which shows that most of other correlated markets turned lower, but not S&P which is still bullish but alone. This could be a sign and S&P is approaching to its top. If this proves correct and if S&P will turn lower from 1560-1600 then USD will probably accelerate sharply which is already showing strength without any S&P help.

Market Correlations

#EURUSD: Bearish But Overlapping

After quite slow price action in this week from 1.3018 low we decided to adjust the wave count and now looking for one leg down. The reason is the structure of a recent minor recovery, labeled on the chart as wave B which is looking corrective. As such, we think thats just another pull-back within ongoing bearish trend. We could see test of 1.2950 in sessions ahead, but keep in mind that these are final stages of a corrective movement and that our primary focus will be bullish when pair bottoms.

The fact is that despite strong bearish momentum decline from 1.3710 still can be corrective move, because each time when there was a bounce the market also made an overlap with former swing low.

 

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