Hi traders,
I hope you had some great time during the holiday break, but
unfortunately it always ends too fast, but we are lucky that we love our job,
right?
Before we go to charting today, let’s see what could happen on this
market based on sentiment and psychology. Those who are following me on twitter
will know that I highlighted on Thursday that holidays are approaching which is
usually the reason for a change in trend because of portfolio adjustments and
so on. At that time, we were expecting higher EURUSD, which was clearly the
case in the last few trading days. The same was expected on S&P futures
which also changed the direction few sessions back. Well, we need to keep in
mind that in normal trading days, money will flow back into the market, so what
this means is that primary trend, which was down on EUR and up on stocks could
resume. With that in mind be aware of continuation of a trend that was ahead of
holidays.
In fact, from a technical perspective we can see only three wave rise on
EURUSD from the lows which is corrective movement that also reversed down from
swings of wave four of a lesser degree. Pattern
is bearish on the EURUSD which could fall beneath 1.2750 in this week.
Resistance is at 1.2870-1.2940.
EURUSD 1h
For now, I like pattern on EURUSD and even USDCHF and we could be
looking for USD longs if we see evidence of an impulsive price action in the
direction of a stronger dollar.
Trade well,
Grega
