AUDUSD Looks Bearish Now For 1.0200 and 1.0100-Elliott Wave Forecast

AUDUSD is under pressure, it fell sharply in the last 12 hours on speculation of possible coming rate cut from the RBA after worse than expected Chinese PMI figures (50.6 vs. 50.8 exp). Pair also extended lower after a sell-off on US stocks futures caused by bad US ADP Non-Farm Employment numbers; 119K vs.154K.

From a technical point of view AUDUSD has a nice pattern here; three waves up to 1.0380 followed by a sharp drop through the lower support line of a corrective channel. That’s a very nice clear bearish signal for the pair, so traders can consider shorts while the market is trading below critical  level. We are considering new alert for members but it seems we will have to wait on FOMC statement and rate decision first.

For detailed analysis on AUDUSD please review our video analysis below the chart. Video also includes GBPUSD. VIDEO 

GBPUSD & AUDUSD Video Click here

USD Index Breaks Below 81.70 Which Opens The Door For 81.00

USD-index extended its losses yesterday and fell through 81.70 swing low from mid-April which makes a corrective decline from 83.50 much more complex than firstly thought. We are tracking a new five wave decline now from 83.20 which represents wave (C), final leg of a zig-zag in wave E that could look for a bottom around 80.80-81.20 area. 

USD Index DAX 4H Elliott Wave Analysis Chart [click here]

For more analysis visit us at http://www.ew-forecast.com/ 

Absolutely FREE 7-day Trial Is Available to New Members!

 

What Rising Australian Stock Market Could Mean For The AUDUSD!?

Today decided to look at the Australian stock market where we can see a pretty strong impulsive rally that should move even higher as we need five waves from early April low. Maybe you are wondering how this will impact the AUDUSD?! We suspect that if investors will keep their money in shares; which is expected based on the price action, then there will be no demand for cash (AUD) which may keep AUDUSD below resistance. On the other-hand, only if investors will start to sell their shares then they would exchange them for Australian dollars which will most-likely increase its value. So for now when Australian stocks are higher the AUDUSD could go even lower if we consider the negative correlation between the markets as shown on the overlay chart below.

ASXSP200 4h

Australian stocks vs. AUDUSD

CRUDE OIL Turned Bullish Last Week; Could See $95.00

OIL has accelerated higher on Thursday, and more importantly it closed well above the upper parallel trend-line of a base channel. Thats a very strong indication of an impulsive recovery, becasue this break (circled) usually occurs in the middle of a wave three of a five wave rally. As such, we have now turned bullish on crude. If we are correct, then price will reach higher levels, possibly around 95.00 in this week, especially if we consider that pull-back from the top already has signs of a corrective movement. Ideally thats wave iv) of an impulsive uptrend. Support comes in around 91.50; at 38.2% Fibo level. 

For more analysis visit us at http://www.ew-forecast.com/ 

Absolutely FREE 7-day Trial Is Available to New Members!