#EURUSD: Patiently Waiting For a Bullish Reversal

EURUSD found some support yesterday and is now testing the upper side of a corrective channel. As such, we need to be aware of an uptrend continuation as A-B-C corrective decline from 1.3710 may have already finished. However, recovery from latest swing low is still not in five waves, therefore we need to wait on more price data and time before bullish run for the EURUSD can be confirmed. Ideally, current recovery from 1.3350 will extend in five waves towards 1.3550 with a daily close above the trend-line that would confirm the bullish reversal we are waiting for.
More details with Chart (Elliott Wave Analysis & Count) http://bit.ly/WIdtMr

#USDJPY Breaks Higher Again; 95.00 Now In View

JPY was pushed lower again while Japanese shares soared after a Bank of Japan member said that more monetary easing could be justified later this year. USDJPY reached levels around 94.40 but we see an incomplete impulse from 92.15 swing low which means that pair should continue higher. We expect at least one more push up as current pull-back appears to be corrective black wave iv. Support for the pair comes in at 93.60/70.

S&P Futures are in a pull-back mode after five wave rally from 1494. So far decline looks corrective so we like the idea of incomplete uptrend. Support comes in around 1505. This count is also bearish for JPY, which means higher USDJPY.

Details with Wave Analysis Chart http://bit.ly/XyejXN

Larger Trend For The EURUSD Could Resume In This Week; “Be Prepared”

EURUSD reversed sharply lower last week after the ECB press conference. But despite recent pull-back, larger trend for the EURUSD remains bullish. The reasons is on a weekly chart where we can see that pair is still above two very important trend-lines connected from 1.0240 and 1.2660. Therefore, we think that bears are only temporary.
 
On the 4h chart below we can see that decline in C from 1.3596 can be counted in five waves, which means that whole three wave A-B-C decline from 1.3710 high could be near completion. Keep in mind that three wave movement is corrective structure so larger uptrend could resume, but we need some evidences from the market before bullish case can be confirmed. With that said, we need an impulsive rally back towards 1.3500; only then we will focus on new leg higher, back above 1.3700.

Fore More Details: http://bit.ly/VajEru

#S&P500: Daily Close Above 1515 Puts 1528-1535 Target In Play

US stocks opened higher after a rally on S&P Futures that was supported by a better than expected trade balance figures from the US (-38.5B vs. -45.7Bexp). S&P500 is at the highs and we need to respect the current price action, so we think that complex wave four which was unfolding for the past few days is complete. We however still want to see daily close price above 1515 today, but our focus however, will be a five wave rally towards 1528-1535 region next week. Any short-term retracement could look for the support at 1508. We are looking higher as long as short-term invalidation level remains in place at 1498!

#Oil: Buyers Could Wait On Deeper and Better Levels Within Bearish Correction

Oil fell down to $95 this weeky before turned bullish again. However, we think that latest  bullish rversal is only temporary, as we are tracking an incomplete corrective decline in wave 4) that should be structured by three legs. We labeled a leading diagonal in wave A followed by a current wave B bounce towards 97.30/50 from where price could turn bearish for wave C.
 

If you are familiar with the Elliott Wave Theory then you will know that fourth waves can be very tricky, because there are many different patterns available, like flat, triangle, zig-zag, or maybe even combination between them. However, the most common structure on the markets is a zig-zag. A zig-zag is a three wave pattern, labeled as A-B-C that occurs against the primary trend.  As such, we will focus on this structure for now, which means more downside could be seen in the next couple of days, possibly even back to $93-$94 zone; 38.2% retracement and base channel supports as shown on a daily chart below.

Intra-day Review For #USDCHF and #EURUSD (#Elliott Wave)

Markets did not move much during the Asian trading hours, despite lower stock prices that followed bearish price action seen yesterday on European and US shares.

The EURUSD was mostly flat around 1.3500 level but pair has now turned bullish ahead of the ECB. Looks like the reaction is technically based that came in from weaker USDCHF.

Notice that USDCHF made three waves up to 0.9148 but we still need to see break of a corrective channel support line and 0.9055 as well to confirm weakness towards 0.9000. Anyhow sooner or later pair will test this psychological level.

USDCHF 1h

At the same time we are tracking bullish intra-day pattern on EURUSD, where we could see test of 1.3600 resistance in incomplete wave B, before pair turns bearish for wave C.

EURUSD 1h

#USDJPY: Extended Bulls Could Stop At 94.50

USDJPY extended higher in the last 24 hours after recent pull-back to 92.00 which was wave iv) of a five wave rally in larger degree of a blue wave (v). Now we can count five waves up, so we need to be ready for possible bearish reversal, as we know that after every five waves correction follows. Current wave v) is already testing upper side of an impulse channel, so top could be near. But on the other-hand if we respect the trend, then extensions in fifth wave up to 94.50 (2.00 x wave iv)) would also not be a surprise. Divergence on the RSI is also early evidence of a coming top formation.

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